← 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1
Water AetherwingTier 2
at 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1
decks
4
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
13-10-4
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1380
· median 1350
· range 1269–1548
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1076
Q1 1237
Q3 1425
1656
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.8% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.0% | -0.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.7% | +7.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exalted Mordred | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
